Six investigators, five targets: activist short selling is back
Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday, September 20, 2026
After nine quiet weeks that averaged three reports apiece, activist short selling got back to its normal pace. Six investigators published on five companies, the most in a week since early June, and two of them landed on the same insurer on the same day. The names they targeted fell 2.1% on average by Friday, in a week when the Dow lost 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.9%.
The Market and the Shorts
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Dow (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), from the September 11 close to the September 18 close. The names shorted this week fell 2.1% on average by Friday's close, each measured from its close the day before the report, and a decline there is a gain for the short side, which is why it is the one number in green. Across all open Activ8 shorts, now 205 names, 67.3% fell and the median move was -1.6%.
The Tape
| Investigator | Target | Sector | Day of report |
Since report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GlassHouse Research | Astrana Health, Inc. ASTH |
Healthcare | -9.0% | -8.9% |
| Grizzly Research | Raiffeisen Bank International AG RBI.VI |
Financial Services | -6.0% | -5.1% |
| QVT Family Office | Jackson Financial Inc. JXN |
Financial Services | -5.6% | -3.2% |
| The Bear Cave | Jackson Financial Inc. JXN |
Financial Services | -5.6% | -3.2% |
| J Capital Research | Hub Group, Inc. HUBG |
Industrials | -1.0% | -2.2% |
| Shortfinder | Agenus Inc. AGEN |
Healthcare | +0.4% | +10.1% |
Performance since report, close to close
Measured from the close the day before each report to September 18. Bars are scaled to the largest move. The grey bar is the median first week across 1,380 reports since 2008.
| ASTH |
|
-8.9% | |
| RBI.VI |
|
-5.1% | |
| Median |
|
-4.7% | |
| JXN |
|
-3.2% | |
| JXN |
|
-3.2% | |
| HUBG |
|
-2.2% | |
| AGEN |
|
+10.1% |
Why it matters. Six reports puts the week back at the year's normal pace: the weekly median in 2026 is five. None of them has a closed first week, so none can be ranked against the 1,380 on record. Astrana, two sessions old, is furthest along at -8.9%, nearly double the all-report median first week of -4.7% and well past GlassHouse Research's own -3.4%. Raiffeisen is down 5.1% against Grizzly Research's -1.9% median. Agenus went the other way, up 10.1% in four sessions. Jackson Financial is the week's one convergence, two investigators on one day, and none of the five names had drawn an investigator before.
Numbers nobody can check
Four of this week's reports turn on a figure outsiders cannot verify. QVT argues Jackson's surplus leans on a $6.8 billion receivable from a captive reinsurer that files its accounts confidentially. Grizzly says €12.6 billion of Raiffeisen's cash sits in Russia, out of the parent's reach. GlassHouse points to reserve releases at Astrana it says were never reconciled to earnings, and J Capital notes Hub Group still has not produced corrected filings. Agenus is the exception: Shortfinder's case sits in PIPE terms anyone can read. Elsewhere, our newsroom looks at Enshortification.
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Our newsroom names a pattern: companies that degrade their product to squeeze customers who cannot easily leave, and the short case that can follow. The test is whether those customers can actually go. Unity fell 51.5% in the twelve months after its September 2023 Runtime Fee announcement while the S&P 500 rose 27.1%, then climbed 130.3% after scrapping the fee. Adobe's closing low in June sat 69.5% below its February 2024 high. Worth the click: Unity insiders sold 107,954 shares in the two weeks before the fee was announced.
The Campaigns
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $7.13 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $6.81 | -4.5% |
| Close (Report Date) | $7.16 | +0.4% |
| Close (End of Week) | $7.85 | +10.1% |
Agenus is a biopharmaceutical company whose shares more than doubled after a July 13 private placement. Shortfinder, a quantitative platform rather than a traditional activist short seller, argues that placement now hangs over the stock, because every share and warrant it created is in the money and registered for resale.
Key Points
- 23.0 million shares at $3.69 in the July 13 placement, up about 93% at the $7.13 close before the report and all registered for resale, according to Shortfinder.
- Warrants on a further 54.9 million shares at strikes of $4.02 and $5.03 are also in the money, a second layer of potential dilution in Shortfinder's reading.
- Shortfinder describes the stock's rise since the placement as the thing that concentrated the risk, carrying every security from the deal into the money at once.
In context. Shortfinder's report #24 of 2026 and #47 since 2022, against a median first week of -1.0% across 45 scored reports. This one is 3 day(s) old, so it has no first week to score yet. Healthcare has drawn 30 of the year's 179 reports, but from only 13 investigators.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $33.45 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $32.47 | -2.9% |
| Close (Report Date) | $33.12 | -1.0% |
| Close (End of Week) | $32.72 | -2.2% |
Hub Group is a freight and logistics company that has spent recent years trying to become asset-light through acquisitions. J Capital Research argues the accounting misstatements it disclosed in February may run deeper than the market assumes, with corrected filings still outstanding seven months later.
Key Points
- February 2026: Hub Group disclosed significant accounting misstatements, and as of September 16 it had not produced corrected historic filings or its 2026 quarterly filings, the report says. The company has said it may be forced to delist from Nasdaq.
- Losses guided for Q1 and Q2 2026, while consensus forecasts from the 16 banks covering the stock still expect a profit, according to J Capital. Only one of the 16 rates it a sell.
- About 62% of the vote sits with the founding Yeager family, voting as a bloc, which J Capital argues limits accountability and could make even a take-private hard to finance.
In context. J Capital Research's report #1 of 2026 and #39 since 2017, against a median first week of -1.0% across 38 scored reports. This one is 2 day(s) old, so it has no first week to score yet. Industrials has drawn 32 of the year's 179 reports from 21 investigators, the widest spread of this week's three sectors.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $37.70 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $34.17 | -9.4% |
| Close (Report Date) | $34.30 | -9.0% |
| Close (End of Week) | $34.36 | -8.9% |
Astrana Health runs delegated-risk physician networks and took about 60% of its $3.18 billion 2025 revenue from Medicare. GlassHouse Research alleges its growth is acquisition-driven and debt-funded, and that its profits rest on management estimates at a company whose auditor issued an adverse opinion on its internal controls.
Key Points
- $38.3 million of favorable prior-period claims development in Q2 2026, equal to 141% of the quarter's pre-tax income, reported without a reconciliation to net earnings, according to GlassHouse. The report ties it to reserves inherited with the Prospect acquisition.
- -3.5%: 2025 revenue growth on Astrana's own pro forma basis, against a reported 56% increase, which GlassHouse calls an artifact of acquisition timing.
- Negative $444 million of free cash flow in 2025 once acquisition spending is counted, by GlassHouse's calculation, against the $104 million the company reports, with debt doubling to $1.05 billion.
In context. GlassHouse Research's report #3 of 2026 and #17 since 2016, against a median first week of -3.4% across 14 scored reports. This one is 1 day(s) old, so it has no first week to score yet. Astrana is the week's second Healthcare target, in a sector where 13 investigators account for 30 of the year's reports.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | €64.85 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | €58.50 | -9.8% |
| Close (Report Date) | €60.95 | -6.0% |
| Close (End of Week) | €61.55 | -5.1% |
Raiffeisen Bank International is a Vienna-listed banking group that owns the largest Western bank still operating in Russia. Grizzly Research alleges the Russian subsidiary has been a channel for sanctions circumvention, and that the group understates how much of its cash is trapped there.
Key Points
- $1.19 billion of trade in customs records carrying AO Raiffeisenbank's registration code matched Western goods restrictions, Grizzly says, including $106.7 million of Common High Priority List items.
- "We have only one limitation regarding Iran: we don't send them euros," a Raiffeisenbank manager told Grizzly during an undercover approach this month, according to the report.
- €12.6 billion of Russian cash on RBI's own pro forma tables, against €675 million disclosed as restricted, per Grizzly, whose stress case puts the group's liquidity coverage ratio at 105%.
In context. Grizzly Research's report #8 of 2026 and #52 since 2019, against a median first week of -1.9% across 51 scored reports. This one is 1 day(s) old, so it has no first week to score yet. Financial Services has drawn 24 of the year's 179 reports, and three of them landed this week.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $137.10 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $123.97 | -9.6% |
| Close (Report Date) | $129.38 | -5.6% |
| Close (End of Week) | $132.67 | -3.2% |
Jackson Financial is the largest US issuer of variable annuities, most sold with lifetime guarantees. QVT argues its captive reinsurer, Brooke Re, pays for hedge losses in installments, leaving the main insurer carrying a receivable larger than its entire statutory surplus.
Key Points
- $6.8 billion: the net receivable Jackson National Life carried from Brooke Re at 2Q 2026, 137% of its surplus. QVT says it could find no other US life insurer with a receivable of that size.
- A $4.9 billion shortfall between that receivable and Brooke Re's hard assets, which QVT estimates at about $1.9 billion.
- About $2 billion: QVT's estimate of how far Brooke Re's market risk benefit asset is overvalued, which would leave the captive's standalone equity near zero or negative.
In context. QVT Family Office's report #1 of 2026 and #1 since 2026. This one is 1 day(s) old, so it has no first week to score yet. This is QVT's first report on record, and Jackson is the only name this week to draw two investigators.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $137.10 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $123.97 | -9.6% |
| Close (Report Date) | $129.38 | -5.6% |
| Close (End of Week) | $132.67 | -3.2% |
Same company, same day, different angle. The Bear Cave's piece was published by its sister publication Hunterbrook, and it builds on QVT's analysis with its own reporting, including interviews with analysts covering Jackson and records requests to Michigan's insurance regulator.
Key Points
- "Each quarter, we settle up on the results of the business with Brooke Re," management said on a Q3 2024 call. QVT's analysis, as the piece reports it, found each quarter's result is settled over twelve quarters.
- $700 million of Brooke Re's $1.9 billion starting equity was cash and liquid securities, according to the piece. The rest was the modeled guarantee asset itself.
- Michigan's insurance regulator declined the Bear Cave's FOIA requests for documents on how Brooke Re was set up, citing a range of exemptions.
In context. The Bear Cave's report #8 of 2026 and #99 since 2020, against a median first week of -4.4% across 96 scored reports. This one is 1 day(s) old, so it has no first week to score yet. Jackson is one of three Financial Services targets this week, in a sector 16 investigators have covered in 2026.
Read the Full Report Summary →
The Borrow
Short selling, explained. One mechanic a week.
Does it matter whether the author is short?
Activ8 sorts every report author into one of two groups. Activists publish while holding a disclosed short position, so they profit if the stock falls. Researchers publish without disclosing a directional position, which is not the same thing as having none.
Jackson Financial put both kinds of disclosure on one stock on one day. QVT's report opens by stating that accounts it manages hold short positions in Jackson's debt and equity, including through derivatives, and that it may change them without notice. Hunterbrook, the Bear Cave's sister publication, says its investment affiliate had no position related to its article at publication.
Neither disclosure makes the work right or wrong. It tells you how to read it. An activist is an advocate, so the questions are whether the evidence can be checked independently and which counterarguments may be missing. Without a disclosed position, the question becomes who funds the work and whether anyone with a stake stands behind it.
QVT's disclosure also shows there is more than one route into the trade: a short in the common stock, a short in the debt, and derivatives that carry either exposure. It names all of them without saying how the position is split or sized.
Around the Short World
Grizzly's chief executive takes the Raiffeisen case to CNBC - Siegfried Eggert says the bank's Russian business is still "very active." RBI told CNBC it stands by its compliance systems and that the report contains factually wrong and misleading statements. Source: CNBC
Michael Burry signs on to a short-biased fund - Burry has joined Minerva Investment Management as a senior adviser to Unicus Research founder Lakshmi Ganapathi, who is launching a short-biased fund, after closing Scion Asset Management in late 2025. Source: The Economic Times
The Big Short partners on shorting inside the pod shops - Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins walk Steve Eisman through how multi-manager platforms hand capital to individual teams, and why fighting a crowded long is hard, before pitching two long ideas. Source: Youtube
