Four investigators, four targets, and the average that misled
Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday, September 27, 2026
Four investigators published this week, and the headline average is misleading. The names they targeted rose 7.0% by Friday, but one outlier did all of that: Greenland Mines jumped 55.6% after its report. Set it aside and the other three fell 9.2% on average, while the Nasdaq 100 added 3.2%. Under the numbers sits one question, and it is about money.
The Market and the Shorts
| The week in four numbers · September 18 close to September 25 close | |||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||
Dow (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), from the September 18 close to the September 25 close. The names shorted this week rose 7.0% on average by Friday's close, each measured from its close the day before the report, and a rise there is a loss for the short side, which is why it is the one number in red. That average is one outlier: Greenland Mines rose 55.6%, and the median of the four names was -3.9%. Across all open Activ8 shorts, now 205 names, 57.6% fell and the median move was -1.2%.
The Tape
| Investigator | Target | Sector | Day of report |
Since report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceberg Research | Deep Fission, Inc. FISN |
Industrials | -10.9% | -19.9% |
| Blue Orca Capital | EquipmentShare.com Inc. EQPT |
Industrials | -9.7% | -4.0% |
| Shortfinder | Silvia, Inc. SVIA |
Financial Services | +14.5% | -3.7% |
| Red Flag Research | Greenland Mines Ltd. GRML |
Basic Materials | +50.2% | +55.6% |
Performance since report, close to close
Measured from the close the day before each report to September 25. Each side is scaled to the largest move. The grey bar is the typical five-trading-day move after a report, the median across all our reports.
| FISN Iceberg Research |
-19.9% | |||
| Median All reports, typical five days |
-4.6% | |||
| EQPT Blue Orca Capital |
-4.0% | |||
| SVIA Shortfinder |
-3.7% | |||
| GRML Red Flag Research |
+55.6% | |||
| ◀ fell | rose ▶ |
Why it matters. All four reports landed mid-week, so Friday's close catches them two to four trading days in, short of the five days we use to score every report. Even so, Deep Fission's 19.9% fall in two sessions is already more than four times the typical five-day move across all our reports (-4.6%) and past Iceberg Research's own -11.0%. EquipmentShare recovered from -9.7% on the day to finish at -4.0%, in line with Blue Orca's -4.7% median. Silvia is down 3.7% after four sessions. Greenland Mines is up 55.6% over the same four, the kind of week the short side has to survive rather than celebrate. Only EquipmentShare has drawn a second investigator this year. No other firm has touched the other three.
The dilution clock
Three of this week's four reports turn on who pays for the plan. Red Flag Research says Greenland Mines' $50 million at-the-market facility becomes usable around September 26, at a company that held $9.3 million of cash in June. Iceberg Research puts Deep Fission's unfunded needs at about $350 million, roughly 43% dilution for today's holders. Shortfinder notes Silvia's buybacks have not shrunk its share count. EquipmentShare is the exception, and the mirror image: Blue Orca's case is about obligations it says sit outside the balance sheet, not new shares.
Track every activist short campaign in one place.
The Activ8Insights dashboard gives you searchable access to short reports, researcher profiles, and live stock performance data across the entire activist short selling universe.
Explore the Dashboard →Coming next week
|
Monthly report · out next week September 2026 Monthly Short Selling Report Every activist short report published in September, measured from the day it landed to the month's final close, and read against the market it landed in. | ||||||
| ||||||
| While you wait, read the August report → |
The Campaigns
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $9.42 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $12.61 | +33.9% |
| Close (Report Date) | $14.15 | +50.2% |
| Close (End of Week) | $14.66 | +55.6% |
Greenland Mines is an exploration-stage developer that emerged from a former biotech shell in March 2026 and owns two Greenland projects, neither in production. Red Flag Research argues the stock is priced on a geopolitical story rather than on any contract, financing or award the company has disclosed.
Key Points
- September 22: the day the US, Denmark and Greenland signed a security agreement, which the company linked to its projects. Red Flag Research notes no GRML-specific government contract, financing, offtake or award has been disclosed.
- "$2.05B NPV ≠ $2.05B company value," the report says of Sarfartoq's high-case valuation, which comes from an Initial Assessment covering less than 1% of the 191 km² licence, not a feasibility study.
- $50 million: the at-the-market facility Red Flag expects to become usable around September 26, when a 30-day standstill lapses, against $9.3 million of cash at June 30.
In context. Red Flag Research's report #12 of 2026 and #30 since 2025, against a typical five-day move of -2.6% across the firm's past reports. Published on a Tuesday, so Friday's close is 4 trading days in; it gets its full five-day score next week. Basic Materials has drawn 8 of the year's 186 reports, from 7 investigators.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $4.07 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $4.07 | 0.0% |
| Close (Report Date) | $4.66 | +14.5% |
| Close (End of Week) | $3.92 | -3.7% |
Silvia, formerly ProCap Financial, took its new name and ticker on the day of the report. Shortfinder, a quantitative platform rather than a traditional activist short seller, argues it is in substance a Bitcoin holding company with a small AI personal-finance app attached.
Key Points
- 50.4% of the merger consideration for CFO Silvia, a four-month-old startup with no revenue line, went to Inflection Points, the firm of CEO Anthony Pompliano, who proposed the deal, according to Shortfinder. It values that stake at $19.8 million.
- From a 38% discount to net asset value on September 2 to roughly a 9% premium on September 22, by Shortfinder's estimates, closing the gap that justified the buybacks.
- $37,000 of second-quarter revenue against $15.0 million of operating expense, per the report, ahead of $99.6 million of Bitcoin-secured notes holders can put from June 2027.
In context. Shortfinder's report #25 of 2026 and #48 since 2022, against a typical five-day move of -1.0% across the firm's past reports. Published on a Tuesday, so Friday's close is 4 trading days in; it gets its full five-day score next week. Silvia began trading as SVIA the day the report landed, so it has no sector history in Activ8's records yet.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $18.08 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $16.28 | -10.0% |
| Close (Report Date) | $16.32 | -9.7% |
| Close (End of Week) | $17.35 | -4.0% |
EquipmentShare rents construction equipment and funds part of its fleet through outside investors in what it calls the OWN Program. Blue Orca Capital, which says it is short the shares, alleges promises made to those investors amount to billions of dollars of liabilities the company does not disclose.
Key Points
- A first-loss guarantee and an implied commitment to buy back equipment at the end of the investment period: what Blue Orca says entities linked to co-founders Jabbok and William Schlacks offered OWN investors.
- More than $440 million of equipment reported by the Premiere Group, formerly Schlacks Rentals, a founder-linked entity, according to Blue Orca, which also argues that leaving out OWN distributions flatters the rental segment's adjusted EBITDA.
- "Mischaracterizes EquipmentShare's business model, financial statements, and the OWN Program," the company said in its response, adding that it accounts for OWN under US GAAP and is audited by a Big 4 firm.
In context. Blue Orca Capital's report #2 of 2026 and #33 since 2018, against a typical five-day move of -4.7% across the firm's past reports. Published on a Thursday, so Friday's close is 2 trading days in; it gets its full five-day score next week. Industrials has drawn 35 of the year's 186 reports from 23 investigators, and EquipmentShare is the week's one repeat: Umibozu Research published on it in June.
Read the Full Report Summary →
| Metric | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Close (Day Before) | $7.80 | — |
| Low (Report Date) | $6.84 | -12.3% |
| Close (Report Date) | $6.95 | -10.9% |
| Close (End of Week) | $6.25 | -19.9% |
Deep Fission is a pre-commercial nuclear startup that plans to place small reactors about a mile underground in drilled boreholes, and it listed on Nasdaq at $16, below its marketed range. Iceberg Research calls it "a money pit," arguing the reactor cannot compete on cost.
Key Points
- $148 to $170/MWh: Iceberg's estimate of the reactor's power cost at scale, against $103 to $110 for natural gas. The company cited $50 to $70 before its IPO and dropped the figure afterwards, the report says.
- Missed its July 2026 criticality target in the DOE's reactor pilot program, a milestone four competitors reached, according to Iceberg.
- About 43% dilution: Iceberg's estimate from roughly $350 million of unfunded needs against a $459 million market cap, at a company disclosing less than twelve months of cash.
In context. Iceberg Research's report #1 of 2026 and #22 since 2015, against a typical five-day move of -11.0% across the firm's past reports. Published on a Thursday, so Friday's close is 2 trading days in; it gets its full five-day score next week. It is the week's second Industrials target, in a sector 23 investigators have covered in 2026.
Read the Full Report Summary →
The Borrow
Short selling, explained. One mechanic a week.
What happens when a stock you shorted jumps 55%?
A short sale has a lopsided payoff. The most you can make is what the shares sold for, because a stock cannot fall below zero. The most you can lose has no ceiling, because there is no limit to how high it can go.
Greenland Mines shows how fast that bites. Say a trader shorted 100 shares at Monday's $9.42 close, the day before Red Flag Research's report. The sale brings in $942, which the broker holds as collateral, and the Federal Reserve's Regulation T requires at least 50% more of the trader's own money on top: $471, for $1,413 in the account. At the report-day close of $14.15, buying the shares back would cost $1,415, more than everything in the account. At Friday's $14.66 close it costs $1,466, a $524 loss before borrow fees.
In practice the broker would not wait that long. FINRA's rules require the account to hold equity worth at least 30% of the short position for a stock above $5, and brokers often ask for more on volatile names. When losses push it below that line, the broker issues a margin call: add cash, or the shares are bought back at whatever the price is then. With the stock never trading below $12.61 on report day, that call would have come that day. When many shorts are forced to buy at once, their buying pushes the price higher still, which is how a squeeze starts.
Where a stock has listed options, buying puts is the other way in, and it caps the loss at the premium paid. Greenland Mines has none, so the direct route was shorting the shares, on a microcap that had more than tripled the day before the report. Activ8 classes Red Flag Research as a researcher, meaning it publishes without a disclosed short position. Our guide, How a Short Sale Works, walks through all five stages of the trade.
Around the Short World
|
Special report · Innodata (INOD) Hunterbrook's fund is long Innodata. Its reporting points to Meta. | |||
| In a long investigation published September 22, Hunterbrook Media argues that Innodata, a New Jersey data company that spent decades in obscurity, is closely tied to Meta's AI work, a customer its filings never name. Former employees and hiring records point to close ties, and the piece suggests Innodata's newly disclosed program on "personalization of long-horizon agents" could be the work behind Muse, Meta's new chart-topping assistant. Neither company confirmed the connection or answered Hunterbrook's questions. | |||
| |||
| Why it matters here. It is the rare investigation that reads a short target's customer concentration as the bull case. Ragnarok Research, Wolfpack Research and J Capital Research have all published bearish reports on Innodata since 2023, Ragnarok calling it "the biggest joke of AI stocks." Hunterbrook, which discloses that its affiliate Hunterbrook Capital was long INOD at publication, argues the Meta relationship is deepening, while conceding the new program's size, duration and profitability are undisclosed. | |||
| Read Hunterbrook's investigation → |
SEBI settles one Hindenburg-era Adani case for Rs 1.51 crore - India's market regulator closed disclosure proceedings against five Adani Group companies that grew out of issues the Hindenburg report flagged, with no admission of wrongdoing and no finding either way. Source: LawChakra
Grizzly gathers the fallout from its Accor report - Grizzly Research published a roundup of the coverage its March report on Accor drew, from Reuters and the Financial Times on day one to NYU Stern's look at the risk for the wider hotel industry. Source: Grizzly Research
